Neurotrash

Oscar Commentary the day after the storm:

The race has officially begun, I haven't been watching TV so I'm unaware of which films are already having "X Oscar nominations..." commercials, I'm sure that has already started. Been thinking long and hard about Best Actress in particular. Charlize is pretty much a lock, but there is one, a small one, who could possibly take her down....Keisha Castle-Hughes. Consider this, Keisha was being pushed for supporting, screeners were sent out, and yesterday AMPAS nominates her in LEAD. Scarlett Johansson was pushed in the wrong category as well, and where is she? How did this happen? This indicates HUGE support for Keisha, huge. AMPAS members apparently adore her and several have publicly stated their support for her to win the award...I've been told the following members are voting Hughes:
Michael Douglas
Julia Roberts
Clint Eastwood
Billy Crystal

Yeah, it's 4 out of nearly 6000, but think about it, support is building. Campaigning for Charlize and Keisha will be so critical these next few weeks, Charlize needs to make sure she doesn't run into overkill territory, on the flipside, Keisha needs to get on EVERY FUCKING TV Show she can and talk about the film and her nomination, if the next couple of weeks indicate a shift in the Best Actress race, mark my words, it will shift to Keisha. Now, I still want Charlize to bag the thing, this is just a little FYC :)

Lord of the Rings: Return of the King is still the favorite to take home the big prize, and Jackson still the favorite for director, yes...but are they locks? Not necessarily. If yesterday's nominations said anything, they said that this year's seemingly predictable race, well, isn't so black and white. This year is truly the first of its kind at the Oscars in a way, but it also recalls the heyday of Oscar back when films like Midnight Cowboy walked home with Best Picture statues. I mean, look, CITY OF GOD is nominated for DIRECTOR and 3 other pretty major categories. CITY OF GOD! The same picture that *allegedly* was SHUT OUT of foreign language film last year because AMPAS members were "walking out of screenings." Hmm, so the same body of people that shut it out last year in foreign language, plus a few new members (last year's first time nominees) minus a couple members (members who died), come to nominate the picture in 4 significant categories including Best Director, putting director Fernando Meirelles up against legends like Clint Eastwood and Peter Weir. It is truly a mad, mad, mad, mad world! It makes me wonder how close City of God was to a Best Picture nomination! If only AMPAS still released their voting tallies... Anyway, at this point it's way to early to start throwing around too many wild speculative upset possibilities, we really need to see how this first week in particular shakes out...fuck it I'm not stopping. Best Picture, as of now, is going to Return of the King, but what has the potential to gain the momentum to pull off that upset? Well, Mystic River and Master and Commander are going into re-release, Mystic River has already begun its rollout, back on 1327 screens, whilst Master and Commander is back on 850 screens this weekend. Both carry huge AMPAS clout, namely in their directors, Clint Eastwood and Peter Weir, respectively. Peter Weir is potentially this year's Roman Polanski, he's well-respected in the directing community and is long overdue. Clint is Clint, and is always a threat, I think Peter Weir poses a larger one at this point though. Master and Commander has momentum to build, that's for sure, but it has a pretty big shot at a director win. Still, Peter Jackson will probably walk home with the statue and will definitely deserve it. Sofia Coppola and Fernando Meirelles (who publicly stated that he would vote for PJ if he was an AMPAS member :) ) have huge uphill battles to fight if they are to win the director prize, but neither can be counted out yet either.

I haven't checked the trades much today, as I was in a car accident last nite and feel a bit out of it, but I'll look into the FYC campaigns that have surely already begun in those publications. I'm actually feeling a bit lightheaded now so commentary will continue later in the night, I'll pick up where I've left off here.


I'll leave you, for now, with this, if there's one thing to know about the Oscars, it's that there is no such thing as a lock. This year's race is no exception, and this race is wide open and is only beginning...stay tuned.